Politics like Chess is a funny game. The there’s more to it than
meets the eye – the more you look at a chess as a game, the more it
really gets into your soul. It requires your brains, instinct, current realities, strategy and your moves. The political Arena can be likened to the chessboard, a
checkered gameboard with 64 squares arranged in an eight-by-eight
grid. The people you find in the political Arena can also be likened to the 16 pieces each Chess player begins with; one king , one queen , two
rooks, two knights, two bishops , and eight pawns . Each of the six piece
types moves differently. And to make politics and chess so synonymous, The course of the chess game is
divided into three phases: opening , middlegame, and endgame .
The politics of Akwa Ibom State and the build up to the 2015 Governorship elections has been no less interesting. Characterized by intrigues, shocking moves and very fascinating dramatis personae. One of the main gladiators and Immediate Past Secretary to the Government of the State, Obong Umana O Umana hereinafter referred to as UOU is one of the men to beat. Like in Chess, he is apparently in his middle game and his next move would be crucial. An insight into his game plan isn't out of place and that's why this writer opines that he makes the right move now by joining the All Progressive Congress(APC) after all Philosopher D. S. Jordan seats “Men must learn
how to act brave. The world steps aside for the man who acts like he
knows where he is going”. Here they are in no particular order:
1. ZONING: Zoning is already a vexed issue. It is almost becoming a cliche but remains a crucial factor in this game. Interestingly, there is no universally accepted formula as the state is not divided into 3 equal parts. Therefore, the idea of justice, equity and fairness remains a topic of debate till when William Shakespheare would have said ' hurly burly's done, the battle lost and won'. The most popular version of the zoning formula is its division among senatorial districts and with Governor Akpabio leading the PDP at the moment, it will be followed to the latter, meaning Eket Senatorial District wil take its turn next. This obviously doesn't favour UOU. The Current Leadership of the APC have pooh poohed that idea of zoning as being unjust and unacceptable. Thus, UOU obviously not favoured under the umbrella can sweep his way through with the broom.
2. PARTY TICKET: UOU has very intimidating credentials, the savvy and the war chest to navigate his way through any political waters. But history has shown that being the standard bearer of a party in a Governorship Race is not a race for the swift. Even though he stands a chance in the PDP, wouldn't it be wise to jump ship and secure the ticket elsewhere. A ticket is a ticket. And like a meal ticket in a typical Nigerian Secondary school, it qualifies one to the same dinning hall with the other students. The APC isn't a bad option.
3. THE LOSER TAG: Sympathy is not a good option in politics. Especially when you have hitherto wielded power, appeared strong and unperturbed. Politicians never sympathize.
They want to feel power and success. They want to be sure this is where it is happening. No politicians wants to take chances especially those who have been out in the cold for 8 years. And even those in government who want to consolidate on their gains. Losing at the PDP primaries before jumping ship will be viewed as a weak, late move and by then the stakeholders must have made committments elsewhere. See why that APC move looks urgent?
4. SAVING FUNDS: Apart from the organization of the world cup (ask South Africa and Brazil), nothing else consumes more money like the PDP primaries, at any level. Bank accounts are stocked for times like now and delegates know its a once in a life time opportunity. To win or even stand a chance, you must be very willing to spend generously and like a raffle draw, there are no guarantees, chances hang on a slender thread. The more money you spend, the brighter your chances. Is that a good chance worth taking? I guess the APC wouldnt be that costly. As a first class graduate of Economics, UOU will fancy that.
5. AGGRIEVED POLITICIANS: The Opposition Parties in Nigeria are natural homes for unhappy politicians who feel sidelined and ill treated especially in a election season. This season will be no different. I forsee the APC currently in relative calm bombarded by aggrieved politicians who couldnt make it in the PDP. What a smart political chess player should do is to make the move right away and make hay while sun shines. If UOU reconclies his interest now with the current APC leaders in the state, it looks like a great chance to start work on time.
6. CURRENT STRENGHT OF THE APC IN NIGERIA: At the end of November last year, Nigeria’s political landscape experienced a seismic shift as five governors and a number of members of the House of Representatives and Senators renounced their membership of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and decamped en masse to the increasingly powerful opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). The defection now means that the APC has 16 of Nigeria’s 36 governors, while the PDP has 18. With an eye on the 2015 elections, however, it is notable that both Lagos and Kano states, the country’s two most populous by some distance, both now fly the flag of the APC, and that if you add up voter populations in the states held by the APC as compared to those held by the PDP, the opposition party’s states account for 52% of the electorate. The figures remain theoretical but its certainly not one that a politician should get his eye off. UOU could derive some strenght from there.
7. HEAVYWEIGHTS IN THE APC: The APC in Nigeria is peopled by known political war veterans and this can inspire political confidence. The APC was formed in February in a
merger of Nigeria's four largest opposition groups – the Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change
(CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and the All
Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – and the party boasts
numerous political heavyweights including former Lagos
governor Bola Tinubu, three-time presidential candidate and
former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, and former government
minister Nasir El-Rufai. This gives the APC a large degree of
recognisability and legitimacy. In Akwa Ibom, former military Governor, Sam Enwang and Senator, Minister Governor aspirant John Akpanudoedehe are two of the many strong names on the list. If UOU is added there, that would be an indomitablesquare.
8. FINANCE AND SUPPORT BASE: I don't know how he did it but UOU's support base in the state is frightening. He parades a very courageous litany of past and serving political office holders who are ready to dare the odds and stay loyal to the course. I feel most of them will move with him everywhere he goes. Meanwhile, UOU has a deep pocket having been
Akwa Ibom State Director of Budget, the Commissioner for Finance and
presently the Secretary to the State Government. Am sure he made some savings enough to match any force in the state.These are the twin factors that matter most in the game.
9. THE IBIBIO FACTOR: I honestly wish I didn't have to include this but this is a factor you can't ignore. And up until we get there, this is where we are. The Ibibios in the strict sense of the word are the majority tribe in the state. In the 2011 elections, they showed a strong desire to get power back and trust me, not much has changed since then. UOU being an Ibibio man and a very strong contender will excite his kinsmen. They stand a chance and better still on their preferred platform, the APC.
10. THE MEDIA: A.J. Liebling once said that "Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one". The statement underlines the role of the media in any political season. It is amazing how powerful our electronic, print and social media can collectively be. It is the same situation everywhere, from Nebraska to Nassarawa, London to Lagos, New York to Uyo. The APC has reason able influence on the media. Being a candidate of the APC is a guarantee of more than enough publicity. From the Nation Newspaper to Global Concord, there's a full assurance of real hype which affects the pysche of the people and shapes their reasoning. And on the other hand, a vibrant and tech savvy youth population is influencing the electoral
process in Nigeria via the social media, Facebook, twitter, Google +
These factors are not in any way exhaustive but they a few UOU can happ on and achieve his politidal dreams and aspirations in 2015 beginning now.
Aniekeme Finbarr is a Public Affairs Analyst. Follow @aniekemefinbarr on Twitter.